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News Flash – Il peggiore dei casi
italy: May 10, 2012Negli ultimi tempi sia i mercati finanziari sia quelli delle commodity hanno subito delle perdite significative poiché i trader e gli speculatori hanno cercato di tutelarsi da diversi eventi negativi. L’attuale corrente discendente nel mercato sembra essere stata innescata dai dati relativi all’occupazione pubblicati negli Stati Uniti la scorsa settimana oltre che dalle vittorie elettorali in Francia e Grecia da parte dei partiti contrari ai piani di austerità.
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News Flash : How Low ? A Worst Case Scenario
global: May 10, 2012Recently both the financial and commodity markets suffered significant losses as traders and speculators sought shelter from a number of adverse developments. The recent downdraft in the market appears to have been triggered by weak employment data released in the US last week as well as election victories in both France and Greece by anti-austerity parties. The markets, which have rallied consistently since the close of last year, spurred by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO), appear to have awoken to the fact that the program was a temporary salve but not a solution to the region’s serious debt problems. As such, fear that a crisis stemming in the EU may upend the fragile global economic recovery appears to be once again spooking the markets.
News Flash : Volatility Returns
global: May 07, 2012Triggered by weaker than expected employment figures in the US (the US Labor Department reported 115,000 jobs were created but 522,000 people stopped looking for jobs in April), energy prices took a significant hit last Friday pulling back approximately $4 on the day. Today, the sell-off continued with oil prices touching the mid-$97 range (WTI) before stabilizing. Although some argue that prices appear to be reconnecting with weak underlying fundamentals, we remain dubious since fundamentals have been ignored for such a long time. The recent move seems to be more of a reaction to a drop in equities markets than any sort of re-coupling with underlying fundamentals – possibly the pruning of liquid positions to raise cash. We continue to believe that prices remain 10-15% above underlying fundamentals and that current pricing levels are being supported by loose global monetary policy and increasing geopolitical risk.
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Spain : Más Volatilidad
spain: May 07, 2012Durante las últimas semanas se han publicado datos que confirman la ralentización del crecimiento económico a nivel mundial, entre los que se encuentran los datos de empleo recientemente publicados en diversos países europeos y en EEUU. Estos datos han empujado a la baja las expectativas de demanda y los precios de la energía de forma importante desde hace unas semanas (sin ir más lejos, el pasado viernes el precio del petróleo cayó en un solo día 4$/Barril). Como resultado de estas bajadas el Brent se sitúa en estos momentos en el entorno de 112$/Barril, y el WTI en 96$/Barril. Hay quien opina que con estas bajadas los débiles fundamentales subyacentes vuelven a retomar el control sobre la tendencia de precios en los mercados internacionales. Sin embargo, a nosotros nos surgen serias dudas al respecto, pues estos fundamentales han sido ignorados por los mercados durante demasiado tiempo.
CNBC - Geopolitical Risk Will Keep Oil Price High
global: April 26, 2012Richard Soultanian, co-president at NUS Consulting Group, told CNBC, "Crude prices are going to stay where they are. I think the fundamentals don't support this level but the bottom line is geopolitical risk is very high right now, the issues with Iran until they are resolved are going to put a floor beneath prices today." Continue Reading
Newsflash : Fox Business : Soultanian - We Need To Use More Natural Gas
global: April 16, 2012Stuart Varney of Fox News' Varney & Co interviews NUS Consulting's CEO Richard Soultanian to discuss how the USA should respond to the abundance of natural gas available via the use of fracking technology making available vast deposits, and which has lead to the price dropping below USD 2$ per MMBTU for the first time in a decade. Continue Reading
News Flash : Iran Gets a ‘Freebie’
global: April 16, 2012This past weekend the P5+1 and Iran met in Istanbul to discuss and develop a plan to resolve their differences concerning Iran’s nuclear program. These discussions represented the first direct contact in over 15 months between the parties concerning this issue. Last week we suggested that little was likely to come from this initial meeting - the results were as expected. The only concrete agreement between the parties was to continue discussing the issue and setting a date for a subsequent meeting - May 23rd in Baghdad.
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News Flash | Iran – A Hail Mary Pass
global: April 10, 2012Global energy markets have been growing more concerned with the increasing possibility of a supply disruption due to continued instability in the Middle East. Recently, the markets have primarily focused on the conflict between the West and Iran. However, recent events in Syria, which have continued to deteriorate, have taken a new and more worrying turn with Syria undertaking military strikes in Turkish territory. With Iran front and center, all eyes will be focused on the upcoming meeting in Istanbul between the P5 (US, France, UK, Russia and China) +1 (Germany) and Iran scheduled to take place on the 14th of April. Although we are dubious that this meeting, and any potential follow-on meetings, will unblock the longstanding stalemate between the West and Iran concerning its uranium enrichment program, the results will most certainly have a significant impact on the energy markets.
News Flash – Nigeria, the Other Supply Risk
global: March 28, 2012Over the last year, the energy markets have been largely preoccupied with events in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). In the recent months this fascination has become even more myopic with attention being focused almost exclusively on Iran. While events in Iran undeniably have, and for the foreseeable will continue to have a material impact on energy markets, they are by no means the only supply risk the markets face. One supply risk that today is attracting little attention is Nigeria. Nigeria’s importance to the market has grown substantially in recent years and the loss of its supply could adversely impact the markets. In our view the market’s intensive focus on Iran has left it potentially vulnerable to a surprise from Nigeria. In this News Flash we examine the current situation in Nigeria and the probability of a future supply disruption.
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Aktualne wiadomości - Inne ryzyko zakłócenia podaży
poland: March 28, 2012W ubiegłym roku, rynki energetyczne były w dużym stopniu zaabsorbowane wydarzeniami na Bliskim Wschodzie i w Afryce Północnej (MENA). W ostatnich miesiącach uwaga w szczególności skupiła się na Iranie. Wydarzenia w Iranie niezaprzeczalnie mają i w najbliższej przyszłości będą miały istotny wpływ na kształtowanie się sytuacji na giełdach energetycznych. Wydarzenia te są z pewnością czynnikiem ryzyka podaży, z którym rynek energetyczny musi się zmierzyć. Jednym z obecnych czynników ryzyka, który w mniejszym stopniu skupia uwagę, jest Nigeria. Znaczenie Nigerii wobec rynku znacznie wzrosło w ostatnich latach i utrata nigeryjskich dostaw mogłaby niekorzystnie wpłynąć na giełdy. W niniejszym artykule przeanalizujemy aktualną sytuację w Nigerii i prawdopodobieństwo wystąpienia ewentualnych zakłóceń podaży w przyszłości.
News Flash - La Nigeria l’altro rischio per le forniture
italy: March 28, 2012Quest’anno, i mercati energetici hanno risentito notevolmente degli eventi in Medio Oriente e in Nord Africa (MENA). Negli ultimi mesi questa attenzione si è ridotta notevolmente poiché si è concentrata esclusivamente sull’Iran. Questi ultimi avvenimenti hanno avuto innegabilmente, e nel futuro prossimo continueranno ad avere, un impatto materiale sui mercati energetici ma non sono assolutamente l’unica fornitura a rischio nei mercati. A nostro avviso uno dei pericoli che riceve poca attenzione è sicuramente quello legato alla Nigeria. L’importanza di questo Paese sul mercato è aumentata considerevolmente negli ultimi anni e la perdita delle sue risorse potrebbe avere un impatto negativo sui mercati.
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Newsflash : USA - Natural Gas Slide
global: March 27, 2012On Monday the April NYMEX Natural Gas futures contract settled at $2.23 per million British thermal units (MMbtu), the lowest close of any natural gas contract since 2002. Today, the negative tone persisted with gas trading as low as $2.176, breaking the key $2.20 technical support level. Unlike the crude oil markets, where monetary policy and geopolitics have been driving prices, the US natural gas market is being driven by the fundamentals of supply and demand. A combination of unseasonably warm weather, weak demand and a supply glut are contributing to the notable slump in prices. In our view we will continue to see downward pressure on contract prices and it is highly likely that we could see a $1 handle on gas this spring.
Aktualne wiadomości - cisza przed burzą
poland: March 26, 2012W minionym tygodniu rynek paliw płynnych był często poruszanym tematem prasowym. Ceny były niespodziewanie zrównoważone jeżeli chodzi o wskaźniki WTI i Brent - zakres kilku dolarów, odpowiednio $105 i $125. Rozpatrując w szczególności czynniki geopolityczne i ekonomiczne, oczekujemy, że w najbliższej przyszłości przedziały te pozostaną na niezmienionym poziomie. Ceny nie odzwierciedlają tego, co leży u podstaw aktualnych tendencji rynkowych, ale obrazują niepewności rynku w związku z cenami - warunki cenowe to znaczący czynnik ryzyka (poziom około $15 za baryłkę). To wysoka cena za geopolityczną niepewność i potencjalne ryzyko zakłócenia podaży w przyszłości.
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News Flash – Calm Before the Storm
global: March 23, 2012Over the past week oil markets have been buffeted by headlines but price action has been surprisingly subdued with WTI and Brent trading within a few dollars of $105 and $125 respectively. We expect markets to remain in these tight trading bands for the foreseeable future, being driven largely by news concerning economic and geopolitical matters. These price levels do not reflect underlying market fundamentals but a market rife with uncertainty - pricing in a significant risk premium (in the neighborhood of $15 p/b) for geopolitical uncertainty and the potential risk of a future supply disruption.
News Flash - La calma prima della tempesta
italy: March 23, 2012Nel corso delle ultime settimane i mercati petroliferi sono stati scossi da numerose notizie di prima pagina ma i movimenti dei prezzi sono stati sorprendentemente contenuti con il WTI e il Brent che si sono mossi di pochi dollari. Prevediamo che i mercati restino in questa fascia ristretta nel prossimo futuro, guidati principalmente dall’andamento delle notizie riguardanti l’economia e dagli eventi geopolitici. Questi livelli di prezzo non riflettono i fondamentali sottostanti al mercato ma piuttosto il dilagare dell’incertezza, aggiungendo un premio al rischio significativo (intorno ai $15 per barile) a causa dell’insicurezza geopolitica e al rischio potenziale di un’interruzione delle forniture in futuro.
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News Flash : Calma Antes de las Tormenta
spain: March 23, 2012Durante la última semana nuevos eventos han afectado a los mercados de petróleo a nivel internacional, si bien los precios en estos mercados han sufrido variaciones moderadas. En el corto plazo podemos esperar que los mercados se mantengan en una estrecha banda entorno a estos niveles, soportados en gran medida por la evolución de noticias económicas y geopolíticas.
Fox Business: Price of gas has doubled since Obama took office
global: March 21, 2012Fox News' Varney & Co interviews NUS Consulting's CEO Richard Soultanian about the prospects of seeing more stable oil prices, following concerns that a price spike has pushed the average price of regular gas at the pump beyond $4 a gallon, and discusses President Obama’s approval of the next Keystone XL phase extending an oil transfer pipeline from North Eastern Canada into the USA. Continue Reading
News Flash - 2012 UK Budget
united kingdom: March 21, 2012In his budget the Chancellor, George Osborne, has affirmed the government’s continuing commitment to reduce the UK’s carbon emissions, albeit with some changes afoot impacting the CRC, Carbon Floor Price, Feed-In-Tariffs, and finally has announced the Government is preparing a gas strategy to cope with the urgent need to build more gas power stations to cope with the looming energy gap in 2015, as a combination of coal power stations and old nuclear stations are set to be retired.
Fox Business: Oil Markets Uncertain Amid Possible Global Conflicts
global: March 05, 2012NUS Consulting's CEO Richard Soultanian is interviewed by Fox News' Varney & Co for an understanding of the different scenarios facing oil pricing in the Middle East, especially in view of the impending meeting between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel, where fears of Iran’s nuclear activities are triggering existential fears in Israel. Continue Reading
Newsflash - Dove stiamo andando?
italy: March 05, 2012Durante quest’ultima settimana i mercati energetici, diversamente da altre commodity (come i metalli preziosi), hanno consolidato i loro recenti aumenti. Questa situazione ha aperto diversi dubbi su “dove stiamo andando”. Normalmente nell’analisi dei mercati energetici consideriamo una moltitudine di fattori differenti e, a volte, conflittuali.
News Flash – Where to From Here?
global: March 05, 2012This past week the energy markets, unlike other commodities (e.g., precious metals), have consolidated their recent gains. This has left many asking - “where to from here?” Ordinarily when analyzing the energy markets we review a multitude of different, and sometime conflicting, factors. These various factors can be organized into three main categories -- fundamentals, supply risk and monetary policy. In this News Flash we analyze this market situation using this straightforward analytical framework.
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Forbes : What The Saudi Pipeline Report Shows About Oil Prices
global: March 01, 2012Forbes outlines the impact on oil prices following the reported explosion of an oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, and draws upon NUS Consulting CEO Richard Soultanian’s recent analysis of the current extreme market fragility where the simmering undercurrents of geopolitical risks can rapidly erupt to trigger price spikes, propelling oil price levels far above that attributable to core fundamentals.
Newsflash - Il ritorno dei picchi pre crisi
italy: February 27, 2012La scorsa settimana i principali indici petroliferi hanno decisamente superato i nostri range di prezzo (WTI $95/$105 e Brent $109/$120). Al momento il WTI e il Brent quotano rispettivamente oltre i $109 e i $125 al barile ritornando così ai livelli dell’aprile 2008, prima della crisi economica. In questa News Flash esamineremo alcuni dei driver di mercato che sono responsabili del recente implacabile aumento dei prezzi.
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News Flash – Oil Back to Pre-Crisis Heights
global: February 26, 2012This week the major oil indexes definitively passed the high end of our target trading bands (WTI $95/$105 and Brent $109/$120). Currently WTI and Brent are trading above $109 and $125 per barrel respectively and have returned to their April 2008 pre-financial crisis levels. There are two principal drivers responsible for the recent increases in the price of energy. The first is the unprecedented level of liquidity available in the global financial markets. The second is the growing risk of a supply disruption as a result of increasing geopolitical tension.
Newsflash - Iran odcina Wielką Brytanię i Francję od ropy.
poland: February 19, 2012W dniu dzisiejszym (niedziela 19 lutego), irańskie ministerstwo zajmujące się sprawami paliw płynnych, wstrzymało swoje dostawy do Wielkiej Brytanii i Francji. Rzecznik prasowy Ministerstwa podał do publicznej wiadomości, że z powodu tych zmian, Iran prześle dostawy ropy, które były przeznaczone do Wielkiej Brytanii i Francji, do innych klientów. Obecnie Iran eksportuje do krajów Unii Europejskiej w przybliżeniu 450 000 baryłek ropy dziennie, z których 11 000 i 49 000 baryłek ropy dziennie jest odpowiednio eksportowanych do Wielkiej Brytanii i Francji. Incydent ten jest spowodowany odwetem za sankcje nałożone ostatnio przez Unię Europejską. Sankcje mające wejść w życie w lipcu tego roku, zakazują importu ropy naftowej z Iranu na obszar Unii Europejskiej. Niepewność dotycząca tej kwestii jest w Iranie jednym z niepokojących czynników.
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Forbes : Perfect Storm In Oil Markets: Iran & China Will Keep Prices High
global: February 18, 2012Forbes reviews the prospects for oil, its current supply and demand pressures and draws upon NUS Consulting CEO Richard Soultanian’s recent analysis of the simmering geopolitical risks which compound to sustain price levels above that attributable to just the core fundamentals.
News Flash - Valutare la rischiosità degli eventi
italy: February 17, 2012Le nostre previsioni di mercato per il prossimo futuro prevedono, nella migliore delle ipotesi, l’inizio di una fase di crescita lenta. Questa conclusione è guidata dalle nostre stime sui tre principali mercati globali: gli Stati Uniti, l’Unione Europea e l’Asia. A nostro avviso, gli Stati Uniti continueranno a crescere ma ad un tasso più ridotto (in confronto ai decenni passati) come conseguenza dell’enorme accumulo di debito, che, avvicinandosi ai 15,7 miliardi di dollari, renderà necessario l’intervento dei leader per un taglio dei costi ed un aumento delle tasse.
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Associated Press : Oil hovers below $102 as Iran tensions bubble.
global: February 16, 2012Singapore (AP) : Alex Kennedy comments on the ratcheting tension in the Gulf caused by Iranian embargo threats to Europe and quotes NUS Consulting Group CEO Richard Soultanian's recent analysis that the combination of supply fears and European political uncertainties are keeping a floor underneath oil prices, so preventing the market fundamentals from acting to allow prices to slide.
News Flash – Assessing Event Risk
global: February 15, 2012Our view of the market is that for the foreseeable future the world, at best, has entered a slow growth phase. This conclusion is driven by our assessment of the three main global markets – the US, EU and Asia. In our view the US will continue to grow but at a reduced rate (in comparison to past decades) as a result of its enormous accumulation of debt [fast approaching $15.7 trillion] which will require leaders to ultimately cut spending and increase taxes.
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Fox Business News : AVG Gasoline prices hits $ 3.51 Gal.
global: February 14, 2012Neil Cavuto interviews NUS Consulting Group CEO Richard Soultanian on the market supply disruption fears that are serving to prevent the price of gasoline from subsiding in line with the market fundamentals. Continue Reading