With half of the year now behind us, it is a good time to review the North American market's current position and reassess our forecast for the remainder of the year.
The U.S. economy has proven to be more resilient than most anticipated. Despite serial rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed Funds rate rose from 1 to 5 percent in the past year), in Q1 of 2023, the economy grew at a solid 2.0 percent, while Q2 is projected to come in slightly above this figure at 2.3 percent. Economists remain split on the impact the shift in monetary policy will have on the U.S. economy. Some believe the US will fall into a recession in the back half of the year, while others believe that the Federal Reserve can manage a "soft landing" — i.e., a slow down in growth but avoid recession. Our base case is that the U.S. will experience a mild or shallow recession late in 2023 due to the delayed effect of the Fed's dramatic shift in monetary policy.
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