With half of the year now behind us, it is a good time to review the European market’s current position and reassess our forecast for the remainder of the year.
The Eurozone economy has avoided recession but has been impacted by its largest member, Germany, entering technical recession in Q1 2023. Despite a lag from the ECB global interest rate increases are expected to continue to rise in the areas well into H2 2023. Economists remain split on the impact tighter monetary policy will have on the EU economy. The expectation of the ECB is that the Eurozone will avoid recession in 2023, whilst others expect the faltering global outlook to place additional pressure on growth and the “soft landing” that the central bank is currently predicting. Our base case is that the EU will experience a mild or shallow recession late in 2023 driven by our wider expectation for the US and Chinese economy.
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