Czech Energy Pricing Trends - 1 Apr. 2021
1 Apr 2021
CO2 price (Dec-21) increased by 2,2 EUR/t WoW to level 42,55 EUR/t WoW. Today CO2 is trading sideways, the latest price 42,7 EUR/t.
Brent price (May21) increased by 1,59 USD/bbl WoW to 63,54 USD/bbl. Today price is growing again.
Coal API (May21) decreased slightly by 0,1 USD/t WoW to 70 USD/t. The energy mix was in bullish sentiment this week and remained very volatile.
Generally, bullish sentiment on the energy market shook off all bearish news and rather sought bullish ones. Bearish news for energy mix was that Suez Canal had been cleared on Monday; however, the market reacted slightly. The market instead looks on delayed shipments and today´s OPEC meeting, which should confirm existing cuts in oil production (no news to the market). Some actual bullish signal comes from the weather when colder temperatures (than previous forecasts) are expected in April. The long-term forecast for electricity remains bullish thanks to expected growth in CO2.
The near-curve market is affected by the latest revision of the weather forecast (colder) for April. SPOT market, despite current warm weather, trades higher than in mid-February when we experienced freezing cold temperatures in Czech and Slovakia. It also trades above Cal 22 level and very close to Q4 2021. It implies traders are worried about low gas-in-storage levels in Europe and expect high demand during the summer to fill the storages.
However, so far, LNG imports into Europe, despite the short story of the blocked Suez Canal, still look good. Pipeline imports into Europe do not show significant issues, and standard planned maintenances shall not change the overall situation. The price of gas will, however, react also to oil, coal, and CO2 market development. Drier weather, lower renewables, and nuclear power production may increase gas demand in summer as well.
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