Czech Energy Pricing Trends - 11 Mar. 2021

CO2 price (Dec-21) increased by 3,77 EUR/t WoW to level 41,93 EUR/t WoW. Today CO2 started in slight decline but now attacks 42,7 EUR/t!

Brent price (May21) increased by 2,89 USD/bbl WoW to 66,74 USD/bbl and today price attacked 69,90 level.

Coal API (Apr21) decreased by 0,25 USD/t WoW to 65 USD/t. The whole energy mix is in very bullish sentiment since Wednesday.

The main factor pushing the energy mix upwards was oil and CO2. However, the energy market followed a general trend in the stock and finance market. The weather also plays some role as the weather forecast for the next 40 days in Europe predicts below-than-average temperatures, thus pushing prices up. Some counterweight is high renewables production in Germany due to higher wind generation, which shall last till mid of next week. ECB announced yesterday it would continue with its net asset purchases program but will not increase basic interest rates in the near future.

The near-curve market is affected by the below-the-average weather forecast for the coming 40 days. The forecast was revised downwards compared to the previous one. Strong bullish factor also comes from stronger oil and CO2. This week's price trend was mixed when until Wednesday gas market was rather in a bearish trend, but it went up significantly since then. Until Wednesday, bearish signals were highlighted, such as warmer Asian weather thus higher LNG imports into Europe. Since then though the colder weather forecast for Europe, bullish oil and CO2 prevailed.

Czech and Slovakian pandemic situation haven't improved significantly yet, however numbers of newly infected have stabilized or slightly declined. The numbers though remain very high, which negatively affects all businesses reported in lower domestic orders monitored by CZSO.

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Miroslav Ceman

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