Czech Energy Pricing Trends - 20 Aug. 2021
20 Aug 2021
CO2 price (Dec-21) decreased by 2,76 EUR/t WoW to level 53,5 EUR/t WoW. Today CO2 market is trading around 54,00 EUR/MWh level. Brent price (Oct21) decreased by 4,86 USD/bbl WoW to 66,45 USD/bbl. Brent price is trading today below 67,00 level. Coal API (Sep21) decreased by 9,4 USD/t WoW to 140,05 USD/t and today is trading below 138,00 level. The energy mix (coal, gas, oil) had bearish development WoW, especially thanks to significant gas correction that occurred yesterday. More information - please see gas section. Driven by gas, coal and CO2 followed. Oil market was also in bearish mode due to spread of Delta variant of COVID pandemic. However, some easing in oil prices could have been expected due end of summer season thus oil demand decrease. In coming days we will see if current events are turnaround of the latest growth trend and if further corrections come. The further development in gas and coal market will be the main factors. Slovak power market followed the trend of Czech market with the same big volatility. Slovenian market followed trend on other European electricity markets.
SPOT prices decreased WoW significantly and just within yesterday corrected more than 4 EUR/MWh. They were driven by yesterday´s Gazprom announcement regarding potential gas imports via Nordstream II already this year at level 5,6 bcm.
Gas market has been experiencing bullish trend since beginning of this year, but especially since end of July. Yesterday´s significant sell-off was driven by Gazprom announcement regarding potential gas imports via Nordstream II already this year at level 5,6 bcm. Some analysts today already doubt that planned NordStream II flows may be “too optimistic”. However yesterday´s announcement is first positive news after long time in gas market and could change the overall picture of gas market for coming winter. Along with this, some analysts also mentioned the gas-in-storage situation in Europe. If we do not consider Gazprom´s capacities reserved in gas storages across Europe, the overall fill level would look much better. Market is currently digesting latest information and trying to evaluate how much gas can/will Gazprom import into Europe in coming months. Given very high price level, there is a lot of room for price correction. On the other side, there are also many unpredictable risks like problems with physical infrastructure, weather risk, etc.
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