Czech Energy Pricing Trends - 21 Jan. 2022

CO2 price (Dec-22) increased by 5,03 EUR/t WoW to level 85,59 EUR/t WoW. Today market fell below 84 level.

Brent price (Mar22) increased by 3,91 USD/bbl WoW to 88,38 USD/bbl. Today market oscillated around 86 level.

Coal API (Feb22) increased by 7 USD/t WoW to 154 USD/t. Today coal is growing and is at 161 level now.

The electricity price grew today by ca 3% compared to yesterday following remaining energy mix.

Front Month (Feb 22) product decreased quite significantly WoW, probably as reaction to updated weather forecast, which predicts temperatures near normal thus higher than previous forecast. Price risks are connected especially to gas market where weather and gas supply risks are the most significant - please see gas section.

Slovak power market followed the trend of Czech market.

Slovenian market followed trend on other European electricity markets.

SPOT declined and is holding now below 80 EUR/MWh level, probably as reaction to warmer weather forecast.

Gas market experienced mixed development where far curve products were quite stable WoW but near curve products declined by more than 10%. This is probably the reaction to warmer weather forecast for February as well as for the end of this winter.  The far curve products are probably influenced by higher oil price, which is part of price formula in long term gas supply contracts. Oil in fact hit multiyear highs this week. Nevertheless some significant risks remain such as forecasted colder weather in Asia which could decrease LNG imports into Europe, geopolitical tensions on Russian-Ukrainian borders, as well as weather risk in Europe. In case of real conflict, sanctions against Nord stream II will be applicated, which will probably have significant price effect also on long term gas products. Gas level in European gas storages decreased by 4,46% WoW (as of Wednesday) to level 44,86%.

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Miroslav Ceman

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