Czech Energy Pricing Trends - 25 Mar. 2021

CO2 price (Dec-21) decreased by 2,05 EUR/t WoW to level 40,35 EUR/t WoW. Today CO2 grew again, currently hovering around 41,6.

Brent price (May21) decreased by 1,33 USD/bbl WoW to 61,95 USD/bbl. Today's price is increasing again and already exceeded 64 USD/bbl level.

Coal API (May21) increased by 2,1 USD/t WoW to 70,1 USD/t. The energy mix was in mixed sentiment this week and remained very volatile.

The main factor of volatility this week was coal. Thanks to floods in Australia, the biggest coal port was shut down, which reduced available coal volumes in the coal market. CO2 weakened significantly yesterday; however, today, it recovered to the previous level.

Another event that happened this week is the stuck of a container vessel in the Suez Canal, which blocks other international transport, including oil and LNG tankers. As a result, some delays of oil and LNG imports into Europe can be expected, thus bringing nervousness into the energy markets.

The near-curve market is affected by the latest revision of the weather forecast (colder) for the first ten days of April. SPOT market, despite current warm weather and above-than-average temperatures forecasted until the end of March, holds a level above 19,00 EUR/MWh. This signals that market is rather driven by longer fundaments such as low gas-in-storage levels in Europe. The bullish factor also comes from news about the blocked Suez Canal by container ship, which will delay some LNG imports into Europe. Another bullish factor is stronger coal affected by floods in Australia.

Far curve products are affected by oil price development, which eased; thus far curve gas products kept rather stable. LNG imports into Europe for summer look still quite strong thus once storages get fuller, we can expect some price easing (maybe later in summer).

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Miroslav Ceman

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