Czech Energy Pricing Trends - 26 Nov. 2021

CO2 price (Dec-21) increased by 5,36 EUR/t WoW to level 74,46 EUR/t WoW to new historical maximum. Today market trades around 74 level. Brent price (Jan22) increased by 0,98 USD/bbl WoW to 82,22 USD/bbl. Today market fell and now is trading below 77 level. Coal API (Dec21) increased by 22,95 USD/t WoW to 159 USD/t. Today coal fell and now is trading around 148 level.  The CO2 and coal had very bullish development whereas oil weakened today due to worsening pandemic situation and announced lock downs. The announced oil reserves release from USA and other countries' reserves did not affect the oil price significantly.  Significant factor for electricity price increase was CO2, which strengthened significantly supported by new German government commitment to set minimum EUA price at level 60 EUR/t.

Slovak power market followed the trend of Czech market.

Slovenian market followed trend on other European electricity markets.

SPOT prices had growing trend until mid of week, since then SPOT prices are holding around 93 EUR/MWh.  

Gas market was experiencing price increase since Monday as reflection to the decreasing outside temperatures and approaching winter.

Due to temporary suspension of the certification process by the German market regulator, the Nord Stream II project will operate earliest in March 2022, however, some analysts see it rather earliest in Q3 2022. This pushed gas prices up for Q2 2022 and later in beginning of week.  In contrary, weakening oil prices today pushes gas prices lower, especially in far curve market.  Risk of continuous lock downs in Europe is also bearish factor.  Risk of cold weather remains and gas prices will remain very volatile the whole winter. Russia increased its exports to Europe via Brotherhood pipeline to 1 TWh/day as of 10th November and since then flows are stable; however, much lower than pre-pandemic era.  Gas level in European gas storages decreased by 2,35% WoW (as of Wednesday) to level 71,11%.

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Miroslav Ceman

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