Czech Energy Pricing Trends - 3 Sep. 2021

CO2 price (Dec-21) increased by 4,66 EUR/t WoW to level 61,52 EUR/t WoW. Today CO2 market is trading around 62,00 EUR/MWh level. Brent price (Oct21) increased by 2,85 USD/bbl WoW to 73,03 USD/bbl. Brent price is trading today around 73,00 level.  Coal API (Oct21) significantly increased by 15,55 USD/t WoW to 159,25 USD/t and today is trading around 162,00 level. The whole energy mix (coal, gas, oil) had very bullish development WoW, especially thanks to significant gas price increase that followed news from Gazprom about export plans into Europe in coming months - please see gas section. Driven by gas, CO2 followed. Current outlook for power price looks very bullish due to very tight gas market, increasing coal price in global market and bullish sentiment in energy as well as financial markets. The main driver of power prices in coming weeks will be gas and coal price. Currently it seems that only significant worsening COVID situation and lock downs followed by energy demand decrease can change the current price trajectory.

Slovak power market followed the trend of Czech market with the same big volatility.

Slovenian market followed trend on other European electricity markets.

SPOT prices increased WoW significantly and jumped above 50 EUR/MWh level. Gas prices in general are driven by news from Gazprom about planned gas exports from Russia to Europe, which should not significantly increase this year, even with finished Nord Stream II pipeline.

Gas market has been experiencing again strong bullish trend since 20th August 2021 (after significant price correction). The latest price increases follow the news from Gazprom which published its forecast of gas exports into Europe until end of this year. The published data show no volume increases, even if Nord Stream II is operational this year.  Current level of gas filling in European storages (67,6 %) is the lowest since 2013 given this part of storage season.  Further price increases are held back by above-than-average temperatures across Europe, although in some parts of Europe heating season already started. Some relief might come from LNG due to the fact that Europe with so high gas prices has become more attractive compared to Asia.  The volatility is huge due to very tight gas energy market. Currently it looks that only significant worsening COVID situation and lock downs followed by energy demand decrease can change the current price trajectory.

The information above is an excerpt from the applicable report referenced above. For a full and complete copy of this report please complete the form below, sign up for our newsletters or schedule a virtual meeting at your convenience.

Miroslav Ceman

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