Czech Energy Pricing Trends - 4 Feb. 2021

CO2 price (Dec-21) increased by 3,32 EUR/t WoW to level 37,27 EUR/t. Today growing trend continues and price is hitting the record high 38,5 EUR/t. Brent price (Apr21) increased by 3,74 USD/bbl WoW to 58,84 USD/bbl and today price continues in growth hitting 59,7 USD/bbl level. Coal API (Mar21) decreased by 5,5 USD/t WoW to 64,5 USD/t. This week electricity market is growing since Tuesday following strong growth in CO2 market. Some analysts predict now 40 EUR/t price for CO2, however others in the beginning of week predicted rather stability in near term. In any case CO2 market is very volatile with a lot of speculative buying, supported by some EU initiatives such as MEPs call for EU ETS-linked carbon price on power imports. The new revision of weather forecasts expects colder weather for next week which supported prices in near curve as well.

Slovak power market followed the trend of Czech market. Front month spread turned negative (settlement price), situation not seen for some time.

Near-curve market is affected by revision of weather forecasts for next week where colder weather is expected. Some relief however comes from Asia where warmer weather is expected, bringing Asian gas prices lower. This stimulates LNG imports into Europe (rather than to Asia) and probably thanks to this front month product easened in contrary to far curve products. Higher rate of gas withdrawal from European storages will however mean stronger gas demand for their injection in summer.

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Miroslav Ceman

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