Flash - ARENH Demand for Calendar Year 2023

The Committee for Energy Regulation (CRE) published on December 1st the total ARENH Demand for 2023.

The requests, made by 87 suppliers and which are subject to a ceiling of 100 TWh, amounted to 148.3 TWh.

Each supplier will therefore receive an amount of ARENH equal to 67.43% of their nominal requests, which will reduce the Allocation of all consumers on an ARENH-Indexed offer in 2023 by 32.57%.

You may recall that ARENH demand for 2022 had amounted to 160.05 TWh.

Suppliers will be looking to hedge that balance on the market as early as today, December 2nd. Purchases will differ based on each entity’s strategy and may not conclude until December 24th - these will take place in a historically high and volatile market context (445.16 €/MWh at closure yesterday).

EPEX France Baseload Future Chart CAL 23

Gauging the impact of the ARENH reduction will come down to your individual ARENH rights. As a yardstick, you will find below three simulation of the premium that will come due from January 2023: for consumers with 60%, 70% & 0% ARENH Rights.

% ARENH Rights
Estimated Purchase Price (€/MWh)
550.00 €/MWh
ARENH Demand (TWh)
148.30 TWh
Estimate Capacity Price (€/kW)
45.00 €/kW
Estimated Reduction Premium (€/MWh)
100.00 €/MWh
134.00 €/MWh
150.00 €/MWh

The French Government has announced the implementation of new aids to companies for the end of 2022 and 2023. While waiting for the publication of the application decrees, NUS Consulting will communicate in the next Flash all the aids and their mechanism.

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