France Energy Pricing Trends - November 2021

Electricity – EEX Baseload Futures

At the beginning of November, trading eased slightly but it was only short-lived. Prices reacted quickly to increases in carbon and natural gas. At the beginning of the month, the CAL 22 stood at 112.37 €/MWh against 167.54 €/MWh at the end of the month, an increase of 49%. As for CAL 23, it saw an increase of 24%.

Carbon – EUA Futures

During the month of November, carbon continued to break all records in response to:

  • The absence of key agreements at COP26.
  • The announcement by the German government of a minimum carbon price of 60 €/t in the event of a no-deal at European level.

Carbon closed the month at an all-time high of 75.38 €/tonne – about 16 €/MWh more expensive than last month.

Natural Gas – EEX PEG Futures

The supply of gas is still subject to high uncertainties due to geopolitical tensions with Belarus and Russia. This amplifies fears of natural gas shortages with the arrival of cold spells and a still disappointing level of European storage.  The factors were therefore not favourable and do not suggest an improvement for the month of December. CAL 22 closed at €55.59/MWh, up 23% compared to the beginning of the month. Cal 23 rose 14% to 34.71 €/MWh by the end of November.

Fuel – London Brent Spot 

Brent was fairly stable up to November 25th, hovering around 82$-83$/bbl. It lost nearly 10$ in the day of November 26 following the announcements on the new Omicron variant, raising unanswered questions about the stability of economic activity. The price of Brent closed on November 30 at the lowest level all month: 70.22 $/bbl versus 84.52 $/bbl at the beginning of the month.

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