Overachieved Target Could Put Future Emissions Goals at Risk

Market Insights :: Energy Market Commentary :: United Kingdom

The UK Climate Change Act 2008 was passed in November of 2008 and outlined legally binding emissions targets that the government must comply with. The act initially committed the government to the following actions:

1. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, relative to 1990 emissions levels.
2. Set 5-yearly carbon budgets with decreasing emissions allowances.
3. Set a National Adaption Programme every 5 years.
4. Establish the Climate Change Committee (CCC), an independent body to provide evidence-based advice to the government and maintain progress towards targets.

In 2019, the UK emissions target was revised and now a more aggressive target is in place: the UK must reduce all emissions to net zero by 2050, compared to 1990 emissions levels. This aligned the UK with the Paris Agreement, in which signatories must cut their emissions to limit global temperature rise to 'well-below 2˚C' and pursue efforts towards a temperature rise of 1.5˚C.

Setting carbon budgets over a 5-year period plays a significant role in the government's strategy to comply with the Climate Change Act 2008. The first 5 carbon budgets were set in line with the initial target of achieving an 80% emissions reduction; the sixth carbon budget represents the first target towards net zero.

The results of the third carbon budget, covering 2018 – 2022, were released in early February, and marked the 3rd target in a row to be over-achieved. The UK are also celebrating being the first major economy to halve the country's emissions, having reduced them by 50% between 1990 and 2022.

Whilst this is reassuring, there are concerns that the government could become complacent and loosen future targets by carrying the ‘surplus’ emissions over to the fourth carbon budget. This could seriously jeopardise progress towards our national targets, as key factors in this period’s successful result were external factors, including the COVID pandemic.

The CCC are strongly opposed to carrying these emissions over and released the following statement:

"We congratulate the Government on meeting the latest emissions target – the Climate Change Act is working. But the path ahead is tougher and we risk losing momentum if future legal targets are loosened on a technicality. The UK is already substantially off track for 2030 and the Government must resist the temptation to take their foot off the accelerator."

Professor Piers Forster, Interim Chair of the Climate Change Committee

If the government do not take heed of this warning, an extra year's worth of emissions would be added to the fourth budget, increasing it by 20%. The result of this could see the UK emissions increase by 15%, further knocking the country off track for the UK's 2030 target of a 68% emissions reduction and the overarching net zero goal.

How NUS Can Help

NUS' Energy and Sustainability Services (ESS) team are able to support clients with the data collection process for a broad range of decarbonisation projects. If your company is exploring opportunities to reduce carbon emissions across business operations, get in touch with your NUS consultant, or contact us.

More: Energy Market Commentary, UK Carbon Budget

By Deanna Radley-Moore

Compliance Projects and Support Analyst Energy and Sustainability Services (ESS), UK office

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