With strong October injections curtailing the storage deficit concerns driving winter prices higher, the U.S. market will continue eyeing shortages in Europe and Asia. The NUS model shows daily imbalances beginning to tighten for the first week of November, a sign that we’re close to the end of injection season.
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Good news for end-users looking for an opportunity to hedge near-term exposure. Prices will likely march higher when the first wave of winter weather moves into Europe and Asia. Clients hoping to place defensive price hedges for the first quarter of 2022 should look to make those purchases as soon as possible.
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Weather forecasts for the balance of October and the early days of November show above-average warmth. This should yield modestly sized injections into storage over the next three weeks and put downward pressure on the November contract price.
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The power market continued its climb this week, gaining in both short- and long-term positions -- with the exception of CAISO, which saw a pullback. A dose of fall warmth, paired with significant natural gas volatility brought sizable week-over-week LMP spikes in each of the ISOs. PJM and ERCOT saw the sharpest increases.
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In general terms, budget-conscious customers looking to secure long-term coverage into 2024 can still find bargains at this point, however the anticipated summer heat could quickly cause pricing volatility to bleed into those outer years.
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This week's LMP averages followed mostly in line with last week's range, with the exception of NYISO Zone J, where we saw some heat-related uptick, while ERCOT pulled back once again for the second consecutive week.
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