US Inventory Weekly Changes
For the week ended June 27, 2025, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.845 million barrels (mb) to 418.951 mb. During the same period, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 0.239 mb to 402.765 mb. U.S. crude oil production decreased marginally by 0.02 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 13.433 mb/d, ending a 7 week streak of consecutive increases.
Market Drivers
This week’s inventory build defied market expectations, which had predicted a decrease of approximately 3 mb—indicating a huge shift compared to last week’s sharp draw of 5.8 mb. Imports increased to 6.92 mb/d, the highest level since late December 2024, while exports plunged by 2.3 mb/d, marking the lowest level since July 2023. This combination resulted in net imports rising by 2.94 mb/d—the largest weekly increase ever recorded.
Market Response
Currently, WTI is up to $67.08 (+1.63), and Brent is also up to $68.76 (+1.65). This tightening in the spread is believed to be the main contributor to this week’s plunge in exports, as it makes WTI less attractive to foreign buyers and disincentivizes exports by reducing the profitability of selling overseas.
Looking forward, the market now awaits Sunday’s July 6 OPEC+ meeting to see whether the expected output increase of 0.411 mb/d will actually proceed in August. If OPEC+ opts for a fourth consecutive monthly increase—adding approximately 1.78 mb/d since April—it’s likely to cause a bearish signal to the market, especially when combined with this week’s positive inventory build and low export volumes, both signaling soft demand. We’ll also be watching for industry impacts following Tuesday’s release of the Senate’s amended H.R.1 bill and will continue to monitor how these developments may influence crude prices.