US Inventory Weekly Changes
For the week ended June 20, 2025, U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 5.836 million barrels (mb) to 415.106 mb. During the same period, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 0.237 mb to 402.526 mb. U.S. crude oil production rose marginally by 0.04 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 13.435 mb/d, marking the seventh consecutive weekly increase.
Market Drivers
This week’s inventory draw is the second largest since October 2024, far exceeding forecasts of a 1.2 mb decline, and pushed inventories to roughly 11% below the five-year seasonal average. The draw was driven by a combination of increased refining activity and higher demand. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17 mb/d during the week ending June 20, 2025, 125,000 b/d more than the previous week’s average. This represents operations at approximately 95% capacity, the highest in a year. Surging summer demand for gasoline, product supplied increased to 9.7 mb/d, the highest level since December 2021, which contributed to the drawdown. Cushing, Oklahoma, crude level fell by 464,000 barrels to 22.2 mb (compared to 33.9 mb and 43.3 in 2024 and 2023).
Market Response
This sharp plunge in inventory helped set up a bullish tone for crude. WTI rebounded to the mid-$60s after this week’s drop into the low-$60 range. Since the release of the EIA report on Wednesday, WTI has risen to $65.87 per barrel, while Brent edged up just 0.07% to $67.73 per barrel. Notably, fading concerns over Middle East supply risks, as a result of the current cease-fire between Iran and Israel, have tempered gains.
Despite declining geopolitical tensions, strong demand and lower-than-expected crude oil inventories could signal further bullish momentum for prices. Investors, however, will remain wary as global supply remains robust and economic growth concerns continue to dampen demand forecasts.