US Inventory Weekly Changes
For the week ended July 11, 2025, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.859 million barrels (mb) to 422.162 mb. During the same period, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 0.3 mb to 402.703 mb. U.S. crude oil production decreased marginally by 0.01 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 13.375 mb/d, marking a third consecutive weekly decline.
Market Drivers
Imports rose by 0.366 mb/d to 6.4 mb/d, partially offsetting the marginal decline in domestic production to 13.375 mb/d.
Refinery inputs fell by 0.158 mb/d to 16.8 mb/d, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose unexpectedly, signalling weaker downstream consumption and product demand. However, exports surged by 0.761 mb/d to 3.5 mb/dโthe second-highest weekly volume this year, reinforcing net demand and ultimately tilting the balance toward a draw.
Exports ultimately gave the demand side the decisive edge this week, overcoming weaker domestic refinery activity and product buildup.
Market Response
At todayโs close, crude prices got a slight boost, with WTI settling at $67.60 (+1.83%) and Brent at $69.58 (+1.55%). At yesterdayโs close, prices showed little conviction following the inventory release but climbed today after reports of drone strikes on Iraqโs Kurdistan regionโs oil fields.
Looking ahead, demand strength remains uncertain. Ongoing tariff tensions and concerns over global economic growth continue to weigh on industrial activity and transportation fuel consumption, adding downside pressure on prices. While geopolitical risk had been relatively sedated in recent weeks, todayโs drone attacks have the potential to reignite volatility. We will continue to closely monitor both fundamental and geopolitical developments.