US Inventory Weekly Changes
For the week ending August 1, 2025, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3 million barrels (mb) to 423.7 mb. During the same period, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 0.3 mb to 403 mb. U.S. crude oil production decreased marginally by 0.03 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 13.284 mb/d.
Weekly U.S. Crude Oil
Production and Inventory Levels
Inventory (KB)
Production (KB/D)
Market Drivers
As noted, production was essentially unchanged, holding steady on the week. Imports declined by 3% to 5.962 mb/d, with all PADDs reporting lower imports, except for the Gulf Coast. As a result, overall supply decreased by approximately 1%. Demand, on the other hand, strengthened notably, rising 4.25% from last week as refinery inputs climbed to 17.124 mb/d. While total petroleum product supplied declined, driven by reductions in gasoline and jet fuel, several indicators pointed to underlying demand resilience.
Distillate fuel oil demand rose by 0.115 mb/d to 3.72 mb/d, while its stocks fell by 0.6 mb to 113 mb. Gasoline, a key demand proxy, edged lower, as noted, but remained above the 9 mb/d threshold - a sign that gasoline demand is still holding firm through the summer driving season.
Refinery utilization in both the Gulf Coast and West Coast reached their highest levels since 2023. Nationally, the utilization rate surged to 96.9%, setting a new all-time record that surpassed the previous high of 95.6% set in 1998. This elevated run rate reflects refiners operating near full capacity to meet strong domestic and export demand - a dynamic that contributed to larger-than-expected draws across crude oil inventories.
Lastly, exports provided additional support, surging 23% to 3.318 mb/d and reinforcing the demand strength. Given the modest decline in supply and robust demand across multiple fronts, this weekโs inventory draw was to be expected.
Weekly U.S. Utilization of Refinery Capacity
Utilization of Refinery Capacity (%)
Market Response
Immediately following yesterdayโs EIA Weekly Oil Report, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices initially rose in response to the bullish inventory draw. However, later in the day, both benchmarks slid to their lowest levels in eight weeks, with WTI settling at $63.96 and Brent at $66.53. As of today, prices remain relatively unchanged, with WTI at $64.16 and Brent at $66.71.
The recent drop in prices may reflect a cautious market outlook amid growing geopolitical tension. Recently, President Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on India over its continued purchases of Russian oil, while also threatening broader sanctions on Russia and other nations engaged in similar trade. Just yesterday, Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff, bringing the total to 50%.
Given that India is the worldโs third-largest importer and consumer of crude oil, these tariffs could introduce upward pressure on global oil prices, unless India circumvents the situation through alternative purchase routes.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ has signaled intentions to ramp up supply again starting in September, which could help offset any pressure from geopolitical developments and ease Indiaโs supply concerns. The expected increase could likely result in a comfortable surplus heading into Q4. This dynamic has left traders on edge, watching closely for any developments that could quickly disrupt the current market tone.
Weโll continue to monitor the tariff landscape, including similar actions against China, as well as developments in the Middle East and broader geopolitical risks.