For the week ending June 13, 2025, U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 11.473 million barrels (mb) to 420.942 mb. During the same period, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 0.230 mb to 402.289 mb. U.S. crude oil production rose marginally by 0.03 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 13.431 mb/d, marking the sixth consecutive weekly increase.
This week’s inventory draw is the largest since June 2024—far exceeding forecasts of a 2.3 mb decline—and pushed inventories to roughly 10% below the five-year seasonal average. The draw was driven by a combination of reduced imports, which fell to 5.5 mb/d, and rising refinery demand as gasoline production ramps up for peak driving season. Net crude imports dropped by more than 1.7 mb/d, as exports surged and imports declined, tightening domestic supply. Notably, exports rose despite the recent narrowing of the WTI–Brent spread—a dynamic that typically discourages outbound shipments.
This sharp contraction in net imports contributed to a bullish setup for crude, supporting higher prices amid already elevated geopolitical risk. WTI is currently trading around $74.20 per barrel, while Brent has climbed to $76.20—both up over 4% since last week—as markets respond to rising fears of escalation in the Israel–Iran conflict. Speculation about potential U.S. involvement has fueled concern over retaliatory attacks on oil tankers and regional infrastructure. Any such disruption could further tighten U.S. crude imports, as seen in this week’s sharp drawdown.
We will continue to closely monitor the situation. With crude fundamentals tightening and geopolitical volatility on the rise, next week’s inventory reaction may hinge on whether the sharp drop in net imports proves temporary or sustained.