US Inventory Weekly Changes
For the week ending July 18, 2025, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.169 million barrels (mb) to 418.993 mb. During the same period, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 0.2 mb to 402.503 mb. U.S. crude oil production decreased marginally by 0.102 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 13.273 mb/d.
Market Drivers
In addition to the substantial drop in production, the largest since the week ending April 4, imports also declined by 0.403 mb/d, falling to 5.976 mb/d.
Conversely, demand strengthened, with refinery inputs increasing by 0.087 mb/d, as overall refinery utilization rose from 93.9% to 95.5% - the highest U.S. refinery utilization rate in recorded history. This was likely driven by a notable uptick in refined product demand, particularly for motor gasoline, which rose by 0.478 mb/d amid peak driving season and drew down inventories by 1.7 mb.
Propane demand also surged unexpectedly, increasing by 0.505 mb/d, with inventories drawing by 0.5 mb - further underscoring the strength of end-user demand. Additionally, crude oil exports increased by 0.337 mb/d, continuing to apply external pressure on domestic supply.
With supply falling and demand firming, this weekโs crude inventory draw reflects a clear imbalance favoring demand.
Market Response
Last Wednesdayโs EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report release resulted in a relatively muted reaction for crude prices, with WTI and Brent largely unchanged despite the substantial inventory draw and record-high refinery utilization.
However, prices moved higher early this week with WTI currently trading at $67.41 and Brent at $70.67, following news of a U.S.-EU energy trade agreement, which appeared to ease fears of an escalating trade war and supported broader market sentiment.
Further, last weekโs crude draw was approximately 9% below the five-year seasonal average, reinforcing a bullish underlying supply-demand imbalance if demand persists. However, itโs important to consider that additional supply-side relief may be forthcoming, as President Trump has authorized Chevron to resume pumping oil in Venezuela - a move expected to add up to 0.2 mb/d of heavier crude to the global market and ease some supply tightness.
Still, market sentiment remains cautious amid geopolitical risks, including Middle Eastern tensions and uncertainty around U.S. trade policy. Weโll continue monitoring these developments and their effects on market fundamentals.